Armenia’s current situation is marked by a combination of significant geopolitical challenges and internal tensions. The central geopolitical issue remains the tense relationship with Azerbaijan, especially following the dissolution of the Republic of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) and the subsequent exodus of the Armenian population.

Peace negotiations continue in an atmosphere of high insecurity and focus on border demarcation and key issues such as territorial corridors. One point of friction is the so-called Zangezur Corridor, proposed by Azerbaijan, which seeks to connect its territory with its exclave of Nakhchivan through southern Armenia. Armenia sees this as a risk to its sovereignty, although its logistical potential is debated.

In terms of foreign relations, Armenia has been strengthening ties with the European Union and the United States as part of a readjustment of its foreign policy. At the same time, it has distanced itself from Russia, its traditional ally. In fact, the government has announced plans to withdraw from the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) after perceiving a lack of support from the CSTO and Russia in the conflict with Azerbaijan.

However, Russia remains the main investor and market, importing gold, diamonds and copper. For its part, the European Union maintains a civilian monitoring mission (EUMA) on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. In terms of domestic politics, the scene is dominated by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his Civil Contract party, but with strong opposition. There have been mass protests calling for Prime Minister Pashinyan’s resignation.

These protests intensified following a border demarcation agreement with Azerbaijan that involved ceding control of some villages. Geopolitical analyst Juan Antonio Aguilar, together with other leading experts in the area, analyse this complex situation, which affects an area as historically unstable as the Caucasus.