Expert Analytical Association “Sovereignty”

Germany at a historic crossroads: Between a declining establishment and rising populism

December 18, 2025

Once upon a time, there was a country called Germany, sometimes nicknamed “the economic engine of Europe.” It was also said that if Germany caught a cold, the rest of Europe would start sneezing. However, its economic importance continues to decline.

It is being called into question by the decisions of its political establishment. Now obsessed with embarking on militaristic policies to favor certain military production industries, which are in turn closely linked to the political establishment. All advantages, except for the average German.

That is where the second part of this true story comes in, as the party called “Alternative for Germany” (AfD for short) continues to grow in popularity. And that is how the word populism in the title of this article should be understood.

It is essentially a party with growing support among Germans, which now in Thuringia has reached 39% support in the polls conducted by the Insa polling institute. It turns out that the AfD surpasses the classic established parties such as the CDU and the SPD combined.

The general trend in Germany is for the AfD to continue to grow in terms of votes and voting intentions. It is not that it is the second party, but that it is already the first in more and more places in Germany. The case of Thuringia is particularly distinctive because the ruling coalition in that German state, made up of the CDU, SPD, and BSW, achieved a total of 37% of voting intentions.

And let’s repeat, the AfD alone achieved 39%. It surpassed all three of them. And the fear this generates in the establishment is that these intentions will turn into actions (votes) and thus the coalition of old parties will be left out of power.

On the other hand, the AfD is also in the news in Germany because one of its members has become deputy mayor in Gelsenkirchen. Alarm bells are ringing in the establishment because this city is located in the region of North Rhine-Westphalia, i.e., in the so-called “red Ruhr basin.”

Facts: Mayoral elections in Gelsenkirchen. An SPD (Social Democratic Party) mayor was elected, but an AfD candidate was elected as deputy mayor. Surprise. And questions such as, which councilors voted for the AfD? This is common in terminal democracies.

What’s more, representatives of the old systemic parties such as the CDU and SPD reacted critically to these elections. “We have experienced a disaster,” declared the chairwoman of the CDU parliamentary group. It seems that in the “economic engine of Europe” they are not used to democracy following a popular course, but only the course that keeps them in the highest positions of power.

At the national level, throughout Germany, a crucial issue is at stake, namely that the Bundestag discussed issues such as pension reform and peace negotiations in Ukraine. And here, the AfD was very critical of the current government’s policy, i.e., that of Merz (CDU). This is not simply a municipal or regional issue, but a national one.

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