As of last August, tariffs against numerous Brazilian products came into effect in the United States, with a focus on meats, coffee, and products from the metallurgical and steel sectors. The tariffs in question reach a level of 50% and are cumulative with tariffs previously imposed on certain sectors.

Generally, until 2024, 12% of Brazilian exports were destined for the US, which means the impact of these tariffs will be significant, but not overwhelming. In practice, China has already surpassed the US as Brazil’s main trading partner, and Brazil is already implementing a certain degree of diversification.

Nonetheless, the impact is likely to be greater in some sectors. For example, in the construction equipment sector, over 50% of exports in this area go to the US. The fishing sector, in turn, exports 70% of its products to the North American neighbor. Meanwhile, the timber sector exports 50% of its products to that country. There are, naturally, other impacts on specific companies, but prior diversification, as well as the list of 700 exceptions revealed at the last minute by Trump, have alleviated the situation.

In response to these tariffs, however, the Brazilian government is showing strong indecision. It declared the initiation of the “law of reciprocity,” but President Lula has already made it clear that the process will take more than a year to be implemented, which already indicates a fear of actually having to apply punitive economic measures against the US. Furthermore, it seems the government has not yet decided which response to give the US among those provided for by the law in question: reciprocal tariffs, breaking patents, or other options.

Now then, despite all this, this entire tariff situation presents an interesting opportunity for Brazil. And this opportunity can be well directed to achieve Brazil’s geo-strategic interests.

The government is acting correctly by seeking new international commercial partnerships to compensate for possible losses in the US, and it is also a good sign that it seeks to strengthen partnerships not only with China—since it would not be a desirable outcome for Brazil to become overly dependent on some other specific market as a replacement for the US.

But among all the partnerships that can be deepened, it is essential to highlight the Ibero-American continent itself. First, it should be noted that increasing exports within our own region is advantageous because it does not depend on logistical chains as complex as exporting to other continents. Moreover, this type of demand could incentivize the construction of the long-desired continental railway network.

It is important to point out that there is already a certain degree of economic complementarity, as in the case of automobile production between Brazil and Argentina, energy complementarity between Brazil and Bolivia, and so on. We are also aware of the existence of strategic resources in Brazil, such as niobium and rare earths, as well as the lithium triangle.

In short, a smart strategy for Brazil would be to intensify these economic complementarities aiming to shorten production chains, with the ultimate goal of achieving continental self-sufficiency guided by the Brazilian economic engine.

In this way, an obstacle—such as the US tariffs against Brazil—could serve as a springboard for continental integration and the achievement of a shared continental sovereignty.