The geopolitical configuration of West Asia and South Asia is undergoing a profound transformation, marked by the emergence of new military alliances that seek to redefine the balance of power. The possible formation of an alliance between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, with talks underway between 2025, 2026, and 2027, represents a fundamental development in this scenario.
This initiative is not just a sum of military capabilities; it is also a manifestation of complex interests and primary objectives aimed at securing autonomy and influence in an increasingly multipolar international system. The countries involved, motivated by internal, regional, and global factors, seek to establish an effective security tool that will allow them to navigate growing uncertainties and counter existing power dynamics.
The motivations behind this alliance are diverse. For Saudi Arabia, this quest is part of a policy of diversifying its security guarantees. Faced with the perception of fluctuating US commitment in the region, Riyadh seeks to strengthen its security autonomy and consolidate its diplomatic and financial weight.
The Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) signed with Pakistan in September 2025, which includes a collective defense clause similar to NATO’s Article 5, is proof of this intention. This clause, which considers any aggression against one member as an attack against all, underscores the seriousness with which Saudi Arabia approaches its security in a volatile environment.
Pakistan, for its part, brings valuable depth to the alliance. As a nuclear power with a sizeable military and advanced missile capabilities, Islamabad seeks to strengthen its regional position and secure financial and energy support from its partners. Its participation in the SMDA bolsters its security and allows it to project influence in West Asia. Turkey, a player with growing regional ambitions and a member of NATO, seeks greater autonomy in its security policy and the expansion of its defense industry.
Talks for its accession to the SMDA, although recent reports suggest that it may not be formalized immediately, reflect Ankara’s interest in diversifying its security partnerships and reaffirming its influence beyond traditional frameworks. This trilateral initiative, coined in this analysis as the ARI Pact (named after the capitals of its members: Ankara, Riyadh, and Islamabad), represents a concerted effort to formalize and coordinate defense relations, creating a more organized and coordinated security bloc.
The impact of the ARI Pact on the “Greater Israel” plans reveals the strategic desperation of Tel Aviv and its allies in the face of a bloc that is committed to the stability of robust central states, as opposed to the tactic of operating in scenarios of fragmentation. While the “Greater Israel” project is associated with territorial expansion and regional supremacy, this alliance promotes the strengthening of central governments, something that the self-proclaimed guardians of order seem unable to understand or directly counteract.
In response, Israel has assembled an axis of convenience with India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a carefully calculated alignment that combines advanced defense cooperation with a security pact that exploits the nuclear capabilities of its key members. While this axis maintains the rhetoric of “collective security” and transparent diplomacy, critical analysts interpret these moves as a manipulative effort designed to generate instability among the strongest economies in West Asia, paving the way for Tel Aviv’s expansionist ambitions.
Beyond this reaction, there are strategic precedents that explain why the ARI Pact is moving ahead on the board: the proposal for an Indo-Abrahamic Alliance, which seeks to articulate strategic and economic links between India, Israel, and the Gulf States; and the I2U2 Group (India-Israel-UAE-United States), an operational forum for technological and economic cooperation that functions as a broad coordination platform. Both precedents show that Tel Aviv’s allies are not only reacting to the rise of the ARI Pact, but have also tested mechanisms to consolidate their regional influence, making the anticipation of this bloc a smart, calculated, and inevitable move.
The role of the United States, under the Trump presidency in 2026, appears to be a mixture of opportunism and hypocrisy. The policy of “Peace through Strength” does not seek real stability; on the contrary, it shifts responsibilities to regional actors while Washington withdraws. At the same time, it prioritizes allies such as Israel to exert control and pressure on Iran, seeking to stifle any attempt at regional autonomy while ensuring that it maintains its hegemony and that of its expansionist partners. This stance allows for the formation of regional alliances, but also implies a cautious assessment of their alignment with Washington’s fundamental interests.
In this context, the Israel-India-UAE axis receives more explicit support from the Trump presidency, possibly as a counterweight to the influence of the new Islamic bloc. However, Turkey’s accession to a mutual defense pact outside the NATO framework is causing tensions in Washington, especially with regard to its participation in joint defense programs, such as the F-35, due to the diversification of its alliances and its growing autonomy in its security policy.
In addition, Turkey’s inclusion in the Trump presidency’s “Gaza Peace Council” gives it a direct diplomatic role in shaping the future of the enclave, which could limit Israel’s freedom of unilateral action in the region. In a future scenario, the United States could attempt to balance its support for Israel with the need to preserve regional stability, which will translate into complex diplomacy and the search for solutions that integrate the interests of the main actors.
The emergence of this military alliance is part of a broader process of realignment among states, which is taking place in an international system where unipolar primacy is losing ground and giving way to multiple centers of power. The Turkey-Saudi Arabia-Pakistan alliance exemplifies this dynamic, as regional powers with significant military and economic capabilities seek to occupy available spaces of power and respond to perceived threats, both state and non-state. This process, linked to the decline of US involvement in certain regions, also expresses an affirmation of sovereignty and autonomy in security policy on the part of the actors involved.
The viability of this alliance will depend on its ability to resolve internal differences, effectively coordinate its capabilities, and maintain a shared orientation over time. Internal and external resistance, including responses from other regional and global actors, will play a decisive role in its consolidation. In an international scenario characterized by increasingly dense interactions and intensified competition for influence, the Turkey-Saudi Arabia-Pakistan alliance appears to be a key development with the capacity to influence the future evolution of West Asia and South Asia, redefining the balance of power and forms of regional cooperation.
