Jair Bolsonaro played a central role in unifying a wide range of interests and opposition figures against the left and the Workers’ Party around his own leadership, giving institutional form to a new Brazilian right that was politically and ideologically shaped by Trumpism. However, his absence has exposed underlying fractures, as well as family, political, and economic conflicts of interest that are becoming increasingly difficult to contain.
With Jair Bolsonaro’s imprisonment, ineligibility, and ongoing health problems, the Bolsonaro family and the institutional right turned their attention to the question of finding his legitimate successor. At first, the choice of Flávio Bolsonaro, as the son who carries his father’s name, appeared both logical and effective. However, the symbolic weight of the Bolsonaro name has not proved sufficient to conceal or resolve the disagreements, rivalries, and competing interests among key figures within the electoral campaign, the business community, and the Bolsonaro family itself.
Under house arrest and subject to restrictions imposed by Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court that prohibit him from communicating publicly or accessing his social media accounts, Jair Bolsonaro now relies on Flávio Bolsonaro and Michelle Bolsonaro, his wife, as the only intermediaries between himself and Brazil’s conservative electorate, which remains deprived of its former leader. With limited public visibility and a leadership that continues to face questions, serving as his father’s spokesperson and receiving his endorsement has become one of the central pillars supporting Flávio Bolsonaro’s challenging presidential campaign.
However, his image has been weakened precisely by Michelle Bolsonaro. At the end of June, she released a video exposing several internal conflicts involving figures connected to the institutional right, the electoral campaign, and the Bolsonaro family itself. Amid a dispute between candidates for governor in the northeastern state of Ceará, Michelle also revealed insults and offensive remarks directed at her by candidates, public figures, and even by Flávio Bolsonaro himself.
Michelle sought to legitimize her statements by presenting letters signed by Jair Bolsonaro in which he instructed other figures within the conservative movement to respect her. The episode weakened the support of female and evangelical constituencies closely associated with Michelle and with Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign.
In response, Flávio Bolsonaro released what was presented as a letter from his father, naming him as Jair Bolsonaro’s true and legitimate spokesperson and chosen presidential candidate. Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court responded by prohibiting Flávio from visiting his father for at least 90 days, arguing that the episode violated electoral rules regarding premature campaign activity.
As a result, at least temporarily, Michelle Bolsonaro will remain the only official channel of communication between Jair Bolsonaro and the public.
In addition, Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign also faces challenges regarding the external legitimacy provided by Trumpism. While Donald Trump’s support remained evident even after Jair Bolsonaro’s imprisonment and trial, Washington has increasingly shown greater flexibility in communicating and negotiating with both sides of Brazil’s October elections, including the Workers’ Party itself.
Earlier this month, Vicente Santini, one of the leading coordinators of Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign, held a private meeting with the Secretary of State from US, Marco Rubio alongside businessman Joesley Batista of J&F. The meeting generated discomfort among campaign allies and other supporters of Flávio Bolsonaro.
Joesley Batista remains a controversial figure within Brazil’s conservative movement because of his clear business interests and his role in arranging, in May, a meeting between opponents of the Workers’ Party and Donald Trump.
Because of the tariffs imposed on Brazil, Donald Trump’s popularity has been declining. This directly affects Brazil’s pro Bolsonaro right, whose ideological identity has been strongly influenced by Trumpism and by the belief that the United States represents Brazil’s ideal international partner.
According to recent reports, even after Flávio Bolsonaro personally met with Donald Trump and asked him to reconsider the tariffs, Marco Rubio stated that the measures would remain in force. Reversing this situation and becoming the leading figure in these negotiations, rather than allowing the Workers’ Party to do so, is of critical importance for Brazil’s conservative movement. Most likely, however, such an outcome will not be achieved without significant concessions to American interests, including broader access to Brazil’s rare earth mineral resources.
Is Brazil’s institutional right entering a period of chaos? Despite the clear internal tensions and growing divisions, there is still no alternative leader with sufficient political strength to replace Flávio Bolsonaro as the principal candidate for October’s elections.
Nevertheless, in the event of an electoral defeat, the different factions that currently make up this political camp are likely to fragment, leading to a more decentralized Brazilian right. Even in the event of victory, Flávio Bolsonaro would likely preside over a government far more unstable and conflict ridden than his father’s, raising serious questions about the long term viability of an institutional right unified around Bolsonarism and about the prospects for a future reelection campaign.
