The France riots now raging ahead of the upcoming election did not come out of nowhere — I believe there must be political motives behind the protests and the chaos. The original protests were most likely initiated by the left camp. However, the situation may since have developed in a more complex way, beyond the control of the original organizers.
France riots: a calculated opportunity for Macron
French intelligence had warned the president about the protests, but the details were not disclosed. Did the president fail to anticipate the seriousness of the incident? Or did he deliberately let the situation worsen, using it as a pretext to find a scapegoat — and then finally show strength by resolving it for political gain?
Anything is possible!
In the upcoming election, the far right and the far left are both opponents of Macron’s party. In the last parliamentary election, he used the left to beat the populist right. What about this time?
He wants to destroy both the far right and the far left. I think Macron intends to destroy the far left first by exploiting this chaos, and then to tackle Le Pen later.
Le Pen’s next move
For the time being, Le Pen will distance herself from the chaos and attack Macron hard on the immigration issue. She will not blame the left but will attack Macron directly. As a result, I think the left will be the loser in this round. At the same time, the France riots will deter Le Pen from launching overly radical protests in her own campaign, forcing her to refrain from excessively populist tactics before the election. The EU and Brussels elites strongly support Macron, so they will remain silent — but they may provide him with covert support through all possible means.
The geopolitical fallout of the France riots
This chaos may well affect France’s position in geopolitics.
First, other EU members may doubt France’s leadership in Europe, since Paris cannot even handle its domestic situation properly.
Second, France is exhausted by internal strife, which undermines its role in the war in Ukraine. Trump and Putin will ignore France in any upcoming settlement talks.
The deeper problem: Europe’s lost technology races
I think France’s weaknesses are shared by other European nations. Economically, Europe has lost ground in all three technology races with the US and China: first, artificial intelligence; second, electric cars; third, space exploration.
If France can play a more active role in these three fields and drive progress, it will elevate its status among European nations.
In the long run, France must revitalize its economic strength; otherwise, it will lose geopolitical influence significantly. Mere military strength and strategic alliances are not sufficient — these are ancillary tools. If French leaders cannot undertake internal reforms, boost the economy, and stabilize the cost of living, the entire country will be in peril again.
