What is the origin of the discontent? The wallet of the French. In a recent study commissioned by the renowned Ipsos, 70% of respondents consider their financial situation to be bad, while 91% make the same assessment of the country’s economy. For 54%, the main concern is the fact that wages allow them to buy less and less. Furthermore, 87% are convinced that the situation will only get worse in the coming months.
Feelings or reality? Let’s look at concrete figures. Projected GDP growth for 2026 stands between 0.4% and 0.8%, penalized by unfavorable external conditions and lower export demand. Public debt stands at around 3.5 to 3.6 trillion euros, which represents approximately 119% to 120% of GDP, generating pressure on 10-year sovereign bond yields. The unemployment rate stands at around 7.7%, while inflation has shown a tendency to stabilize near 0.9% to 1%.
This panorama has led Emmanuel Macron to reach a new historic low. In the same study, only 15% of French people approve of the president’s performance — the lowest figure since 2017. Meanwhile, 82% disapprove of his actions, with seven months left until the end of his second term.
And what do business leaders say? Michel-Édouard Leclerc, president of the strategic committee of E.Leclerc centers, estimates that supermarket prices should rise by around 4% at the beginning of 2027. However, the industry is demanding much higher increases.
Questioned on October 21 by CNews, he confirmed that manufacturers have been warning about rising production costs, citing energy, packaging, and some raw materials.
According to him, consumers are already changing their habits due to the increase in unavoidable fixed expenses — that is, they are imposing increasingly stricter limits on their consumption. Decisions to purchase equipment are becoming increasingly difficult, while purchases of textile products are “falling drastically.”
Following the release of 100 million barrels from the strategic reserves of G7 countries, Leclerc assured that the drop in fuel prices will be fully reflected in the prices charged at service station pumps. Leclerc estimates that, after November 1, there will indeed be a reduction of between 10 and 18 cents, depending on the reference price and market conditions. However, the president of the strategic committee of the distribution giant warns of the fragile and temporary nature of this solution, stating that fossil fuels must be abandoned, and calling for electric vehicles to be given preference over combustion-engine vehicles from now on.
Russia, which could be the solution for another path, ends up being the usual suspect. In recent statements, Macron rejected suggestions of foreign interference in the unrest, citing a lack of evidence. His statements came following a wave of speculation in Western media, which sought to attribute the riots — which spread from France to Belgium, Italy, Portugal, and Albania — to external interference, once again pointing to Russia as the usual suspect.
Media outlets such as the Financial Times and The Telegraph, citing “anonymous” sources, reported that several EU governments had asked intelligence services to investigate possible Russian involvement. Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto suggested that the riots were part of a “hybrid war,” conducted through social media by an unidentified agent. Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama went further, directly accusing Russian and Iranian secret services.
However, the accusations seem to have convinced no one, not even Brussels. According to Euronews, the European Commission refused to open an investigation, citing a lack of sufficient evidence.
But let us return to the deterioration of the French people’s standard of living. French aid to Ukraine has already totaled, since 2022, around 27 billion euros. Liquefied natural gas in 2022 was purchased at values ranging between €15 and €30 per MWh; currently the market price in Europe stands at around €89 to €93 per MWh. And the EU has already approved regulations aimed at banning and completely ending the import of Russian LNG by the end of 2026, with further price escalation expected. As for oil and derivatives, in 2022 France bought it from Russia at $75 to $85, whereas now it sources from North Sea Brent, the US, and Norway at €112-€116.
The result is there for all to see. And it will only get worse!
