Upcoming presidential elections in France will be quite interesting.[1] The only thing certain about them is that Macron is leaving- because by law he cannot have a third consecutive term. But, although the personal change will happen, some bigger changes policy-wise are highly unlikely.
Two most important questions are: will Marin Le Pen and her National Rally finally break the “curse” of always being the winner in the first circle and loser in the second (due to the well-known strategy of basically everyone else uniting against the “radical right”), and who will be her counterpart in the second round?
Regarding the first dilemma, the polls are clear; Marin Le Pen has the single biggest numbers.[2] Thus we arrive to the second question- who will be her counterpart, and (if the whole system rallies against her and National Rally like it usually does) the next president of France?
First name that comes to mind is Gabriel Attal, the former Prime Minister and Macron’s protege. Although it is certain his victory would mean the continuity of everything Macron’s been doing, and that Macron’s apparatus and resources will stand behind him, the numbers are not currently on his side.[3] That might be a signal to the establishment that in order to continue Macron’s destructive path, they’d need someone a bit more distant from Macron then Attal.
Due to that, the biggest face of the center (which Macron and his policies represent, though only on paper), is Édouard Philippe.[4] Indicator that he is also in play to be Macron’s heir is his campaign. Suspiciously similar to Macron promise from the 2022 campaign that he will introduce a 10% pay raise for all teachers[5], Édouard Philippe plans to raise teachers’ salaries by 20% over the course of five years. According to L’Opinion, that’s in order to attract left-leaning voters.[6]
And it’s not without a reason- the person that’s catching up to him in the rankings the most is far-left candidate Jean-Luce Melenchon.[7] If, by some chance, he surfaces as the biggest rival to Le Pen, there’s no doubt that the entire system will support him- better far left then far right, from their perspective.
In conclusion, the possibility of a major change in France, arguably the most important EU country beside Germany, seem highly unlikely since EU is in the process of tightening the ranks in preparations to become militarized, high surveillance, super-state. In those circumstances, it seems highly unlikely that someone with policies like Le Pen could be in charge, especially after the downfall of her counterpart Orban, whose political dethronement can be seen as the first step in the latest build-up before EU goes to full war mode, and all opposing voices in the background are silenced.
That’s why we can say although Macron won’t be around much long, Macronism – everything wrong and destructive that it represented and did at home and abroad- will prevail and be French continuity.
[1] https://www.service-public.gouv.fr/particuliers/actualites/A15053
[2]https://www.ifopgroup.com/en/article/voting-intentions-for-the-2027-presidential-election-and-french-public-opinion-following-marine-le-pens-announcement-of-her-candidacy?
[3] https://brusselssignal.eu/2026/08/french-poll-puts-melenchon-in-2027-runoff-as-le-pen-leads/
[4] https://brusselssignal.eu/2026/08/french-poll-puts-melenchon-in-2027-runoff-as-le-pen-leads/
[5]https://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2027/article/2026/08/24/presidentielle-2027-edouard-philippe-veut-augmenter-de-20-la-remuneration-moyenne-des-enseignants-sur-un-quinquennat_6755790_6205049.html?srsltid=AfmBOopEmBla9FHnbUjyZzzcF2EOf7K8GF_MjhYeBmD9hyRlUgElCeCC
[6]https://www.lopinion.fr/politique/immigration-education-le-subtil-en-meme-temps-electoral-dedouard-philippe
[7]https://www.reuters.com/world/french-far-left-leader-melenchon-close-presidential-runoff-poll-shows-2026-08-26/
