The reconfiguration of the geopolitical map and balance of power in the South Caucasus region has gradually been changing over the past five years, starting with the Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 and 2023, a conflict between the former Soviet Republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan, which have been fighting for control and sovereignty over the aforementioned area for thirty-five years.
After the last two conflicts, the resounding Azerbaijani victory over Armenia is undeniable. This event has given rise to a new chapter in the power dynamics in the South Caucasus region, involving third parties, among regional and global powers seeking to expand their presence and power from the Caucasus to Central Asia, all to the detriment of the geopolitical interests of other important regional players, such as Russia and Iran. Needless to say, the big loser is the Republic of Armenia, which bears a new historical wound.
Last August, a high-level meeting was held in Washington between the Prime Minister of Armenia (Nikol Pashinyan), the President of Azerbaijan (Ilham Aliyev), and the host, US President Donald Trump. At that meeting, a peace agreement containing nine points was presented, one of which, perhaps the most crucial, concerns the Zangezur Corridor Project. This is a land corridor that seeks to link Azerbaijan with its enclave of Nakhichevan, ultimately connecting with the Turkish border, a regional power and rival of Iran in the region.
It’s also worth mentioning that this project directly rivals the interests of another global power and confronts Chinese interests in the region, as this corridor will inevitably compete with other land routes, some of which are part of the vast Silk Road Project promoted by the People’s Republic of China. If the Zangezur Corridor Project is implemented, it would stretch from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, crossing the entire South Caucasus and the entire Anatolian Peninsula to reach Turkish ports. This would give Turkey a huge advantage, as well as influence in Central Asia, an area historically disputed by Russian, Iranian, and also Chinese interests.
“Turkish Neo-Ottomanism” is a geopolitical reality. In recent years, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, nationalist sentiment and a sense of historical vindication have been shaped and strengthened in today’s Turkey. It is not surprising, then, why Turkey is directly involved and fiercely promotes a form of “PAN-TURKISM.”
To this end, it unites Turkey with Azerbaijan, crosses the Caspian Sea, and includes the Central Asian countries with whom it shares historical ties within its orbit of influence. Ultimately, it aims to create an interconnected Turkish world, positioning Turkey as a guarantor of stability while simultaneously establishing itself as a vector of commercial and diplomatic influence.
The role that the United States plays in this project is preponderant, as it will obtain special rights for its companies to invest. Turkey, Azerbaijan, and the United States have presented it as an “opportunity for peace and development.”
But the geopolitical maneuvering and national interests of both Turkey and the United States are evident. Viewed from this perspective, it is more of a plan to fracture the region and rearrange the geopolitical playing field in the South Caucasus.
This situation is raising alarm bells in Tehran, as there are several threats to its national interests and even to its own security. On the one hand, the commercial damage would displace Iran as a transit country for goods traveling from Turkey to Central Asia. On the other hand, from a geopolitical perspective, the damage is also enormous, as several factors must be considered.
First, what it would mean to have one of its greatest rivals, the United States, on its border. Second, there are fears that the consolidation of an interconnection between Azerbaijan, Turkey, and the Azeri enclave of Nakhichevan could ignite a nationalist spirit among the Azeri population in Iran, the majority minority in the country with more than 20 million inhabitants.
Not only Armenia, China or Iran are somehow affected by such a PAN-TURKISH Project, but there is another very important actor that is also somehow harmed and its influence diminished in a region historically under its influence, we refer to the Russian Federation that, after the entry of the United States to try to take over the management and administration of the Zangezur corridor, somewhat diminishes the historical Russian weight in a region of its near abroad.
A bridge of cooperation in the South Caucasus must be built on genuine respect for the sovereignty of the other states involved, and not on the imposition of force by strong neighbors or other powers. The explicit threats from Baku, stating that they will open the Zangezur Corridor by force if necessary, are striking and worrying. This exposes the true intention and nature that may lie behind this project: a military imposition rather than a fair and consensual agreement.
Once the problem, its characteristics, and complexities have been explained, a question necessarily arises: Will a war in the South Caucasus be unleashed or not? In geopolitics, anything can happen, because for states, understood as rational entities, the survival and expansion of their power are higher objectives that must be guaranteed and pursued at all times and without sparing resources or opportunities.
Therefore, the threat posed by Azerbaijan and Turkey with the Zangezur Land Corridor Project and its PAN-TURKISH spirit indeed inconveniences, harms, and worries several actors involved, and they see their national interests compromised in one way or another, these being affected Armenia, Iran, China, and Russia. But the most direct fear comes from Armenia, of course, which could be witnessing a new territorial dismemberment and historical injustice by the Turkish world.
However, there is a key actor that is also a regional power and a geopolitical, ethnic, cultural, and historical rival of the Turks: the ancient Persian nation, the Iran of our days. It is the Persian State that perceives a greater threat and impact on its security and national interests regarding the Zangezur Land Corridor Project because, on the one hand, there is a decrease in its importance as a transit territory for goods going from Central Asia to the Anatolian Peninsula and the Mediterranean.
Another perceived threat is the possible presence of one of its greatest geopolitical rivals on the other side of its border, that is, the United States, which, as Baku has made known, will be companies from that nation that will be in charge of the construction and administration of said corridor, this of course bothers Iran, which will feel permanently threatened from its northwestern border, and finally, and as already mentioned, is the fear of a possible territorial secession of the Iranian regions bordering Turkey and Azerbaijan, fueling an Azeri nationalist sentiment within Iran from the population identified as Azeri.
So with such a scenario, a military confrontation involving two regional powers (Iran and Turkey) and a global power like the United States would be possible, because the response could be complex, but at least in the short term due to how chaotic and terrible a conflict of those characteristics and magnitude would be, at this moment it is possibly not logical to think about a military adventure of that intensity for an Iran that must deal with other more direct existential problems, such as the issue with Israel and proxy wars, but which cannot be completely ruled out in the future.
In conclusion, once the Zangezur Corridor Project is implemented on the ground, the balance of power would have been radically altered and the region would never be the same. A new focus of tension would have arisen, and which will undoubtedly be a headache for those involved for many years.
