“It is the dawn of a new Middle East” – President Donald Trump exclaimed very satisfied before the Knesset on October 13, 2025. The Israelis welcomed him triumphantly, some wearing red MAGA caps, on the occasion of the release of the Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.

The head of the White House has accustomed us to these particularly optimistic tones, extending his side to his detractors, then denying them with a particular use of public communication. He doesn’t tell everything at the first press release. In the meantime, he establishes the positive outcome of his work, because as a skilled salesman he knows that the world needs a concise sentence to seize his victory, although it can be resized and incomplete. But that will be the task of analysts.

Then he often speaks to his mother-in-law so that his daughter-in-law understands. In fact, he addressed a message to Iran, noting that decades of terrorism have backfired on the Ayatollahs’ regime and that the responsible nations of the region should ally themselves, not wage war against each other.

The message is addressed to Tehran, to which the Tycoon extends his hand, as a nuclear superpower. The speech to the Israeli parliament highlighted the first phase of his “peace plan” in Gaza, creating other scenarios, perhaps dormant and waiting for the propitious opportunity to emerge.

The agreement, the result of indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas, mediated by Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and the United States, leaves many details unclear, from the disarmament of Hamas to the future management of the Gaza Strip. While key issues such as a complete Israeli withdrawal and a path to a Palestinian state are postponed to the next stages. The resumption of hostilities, shortly after the truce, and the guerrilla actions on both sides, do not bode well.

Although everyone pretends to believe in a real truce, heralded like a trophy, in reality it has been respected, from the beginning, only in the points that each of the parties considers in its favor.

Before the tragic October 7, 2023, the region was faced with the signing of the “Abraham Accords”, which were supposed to normalize trade relations between Israel and the Gulf monarchies, neutralizing both the Palestinian issue and Iran’s hegemonic ambitions. 

The agreements have been effectively frozen and the regional narrative has changed. Israel has launched several bloody military operations to dismantle the so-called “ring of fire” supported by Tehran, involving Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and, above all, the programma Iranian nuclear issue. The strategy has weakened Iran’s proxies – Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah – undermining the apparent stability built up by the Abraham Accords.

It is not surprising, in fact, that the US president wants to improve relations with Tehran, for regional stability and the containment of Chinese influence. The Islamic Republic is now at a crossroads: supporting the “peace plan”, and giving economic relief to its people, crushed by Western sanctions; or risk economic marginalization.

With Hamas out of the game because it was disarmed in phase 2 of the peace process, Iran would lose an important tool of pressure on Israel. Oil binds Tehran to this agreement: a more peaceful Middle East could limit the risk of oil price fluctuations, thus reducing Iran’s revenues, which is heavily dependent on crude oil exports.

By hosting the summit for the truce in Gaza, Cairo presents itself with a new look at the international level and strengthened by the trust of the United States. A stable Gaza could translate into more Western financial aid and Gulf investment in Egypt. Cairo will in fact be at the forefront of the reopening of the crossings and the flow of aid to Gaza, with opportunities for local companies in the construction, logistics and energy sectors.

Turkey also aims to obtain a political and economic return from this crucial step, after having played a central role in the peace negotiations. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is very popular among Palestinians, has announced Ankara’s willingness to participate in the reconstruction of Gaza, opening up new opportunities for large Turkish companies in the construction sector.

This more stable area could revive the gas pipeline project between Israel and Turkey, which would allow Israeli gas to be channeled to Europe and strengthen Turkey’s role as a gas hub in the eastern Mediterranean.

But, in the Middle East, we cannot think of taking anything for granted, because these are territories in which economic, political, ethnic, religious instability has always been the protagonist. Therefore, with Iran weakened and Israel dominant, a race to lead the Sunni Islamic world is opening up between Erdoğan’s Turkey, al-Sisi’s Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Of particular interest is the analysis of General Giuseppe Cucchi, military adviser to the Prime Minister and scientific advisor for the geopolitical magazine Limes (October 2025): “the war is bringing out a balance of power in the area that is very different from the one that existed previously. In this perspective, Israel has undoubtedly played, at least in the short and medium term, the lion’s share, imposing itself as a force that no one can delle medie potenze del Medio Oriente potrà permettersi di contrastare per parecchio tempo.

However, in the long term, in one way or another, Israel will be forced to bear the burden and consequences of the terrible ruthlessness demonstrated by its behavior.” This is also what pushes Trump, politically much smarter than what is portrayed by the Dem press, to extend a hand to Iran, to try to maintain a difficult balance, which does not explode irreversibly.

Israel has lost a lot of consensus and sympathy, globally, both among governments and in public opinion, including internally, so General Cucchi assumes the explosion of feelings of revenge on the part of the Palestinians. But, in our opinion, those who no longer even have the eyes to cry will hardly be able to move in a belligerent way. Another argument can be made, if it is necessary to move Hamas mercenaries to use them in order to continue the war, until the complete conquest by the IdF of Gaza and the West Bank, using the excuse of blaming the Palestinians for not having respected the agreements.

The Shiite Islamists come out of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with particularly broken bones, largely downsized, even if the Palestinians are Sunnis. From this point of view, a new conflict for the Sunni leadership is looming on the horizon, which would seem to be reduced to Turkey, which controls a large part of Syria, to Egypt which in the Sinai areas is facing the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is an offshoot.

Then there is Saudi Arabia, an ally of the United States and sidelined during the war, which will be able to carve out a large space in the reconstruction phase, thanks to its huge financial resources. Finally, there is Qatar, economically very powerful, but just as small, which wants a place of honor in the disputed Shiite leadership.

All this may suggest that the role of great mediators of the Sharm-el-Sheik truce was not disinterested, but functional to the power struggle in the Shiite galaxy and that we will still have much to wait for a realistic lasting peace.