China has launched the One Belt One Road Initiative (BR1) which is a grand and long term strategy under Xi’s leadership. This strategy is very essential to sustain the ongoing development for the coming future. In substance, BRI is a westward strategy towards Eurasia and China wants to make all nations along the BRI prosper with mutual gains.
The participating nations can build up sufficient infrastructure while China can export their capital and services. Infrastructure development requires a sufficient and stable supply for energy, including oil and natural gas. Hence, China‘s foreign policies aim to achieve this goal with a balance with supply nations including Russia, Iran and Gulf countries.
It is goundless to say that China will be an energy threat to Europe. Quite the opposite, China plays a role to maintain the energy supply to Eurasia.
With reference to military threat to Europe, one should understand the priority of China’ Defence Strategy. China’s security tradition, which is a long history, is not to gain more territories.
Beijing government just wants to maintain is border integrity like that inherited in modern time. I cite two examples. China did not gain any territory in Korean War. Also, Deng Xiaoping withdrew all its troops two weeks after conflict with Vietnam in the last century.
Further, China did not and will not have any motivation to conquer Europe because no European nation, if acting independently, will bring any military threat to China at all. However, I am not saying that there will not be any tension between China and Europe. In the emerging multipolarity, competition and alignment will become more frequent and dispersed even among nations of the same political bloc. For example, UAE and Saudi Arabia also struggle for interests in Yemen.
For China and Europe, the conflict will be more related to economic and technology aspects. These issues must be addressed from time to time but I believe that leaders of both sides have wisdom and skill to sort them out at the end in every occasion. Normally speaking, such problems will not escalate to crisis and even military confrontation.
As Carl Schmitt said, there must be enemy/foe in all political relations. NATO is still a potential enemy to China. Will NATO move eastwards to contain China? Firstly, Trump is not interested at all. Without the United States, European members of NATO are not capable to contain China in Asia.
Trump has withdrawn resources from NATO so that I think he will not use NATO any more for other purposes. Secondly, the role of Japan. If NATO wants to expand eastwards to contain China, alliance with Japan is the only choice.
However, there are a few considerations. Firstly, is Japan willing to join NATO? Tokyo may want to have a strategic relationship rather than a full membership because geopolitically, Europe cannot help much in military deterrence towards China.
Secondly, Japan may not want a NATO membership to arouse suspicion from Russia. Tokyo leadership still wants to have a balanced diplomacy with Moscow and Beijing.
Thirdly, if Japan joins NATO, it may stimulate response from North Korea, too. This will make Russia, China and Noth Korea come even closer. Not all European nations want to see this happening.
Finally, how about South Korea? Seoul government now wants to promote a stable relations with Beijing. Japan certainly need to consider the position of South Korea, which is an ally, before making any final decision.
