Geogia is certainly an important connection hub for China’s One Belt One Road Initiative. I think it is a golden time for China to accelerate engagement with Geogia. The reason is that the ruling party, Georgian Dream, has changed the direction of foreign policy. The nation no longer leans entirely to the West against Russia.
The present leadership of Geogia has adopted a more balanced policy towards the West(United States and EU) and the Orient (Russia and China). For China, engaging with Georgia for greater influence in the South Caucasus region is easier for dealing with Armenia or Azerbaijan as there is still tension before these two nations, making China to take a cautious approach.
Economically, elevating strategical partnership is mutually beneficial to both countries. However, geopolitical players still influence the progress of such collaboration. Firstly, the EU sees China as a competitor, in particular in view of the present trade grudge between Brussels and Beijing. The Georgian opposition is pro-EU so that it is very likely they will object deepening relationship with China, and may even resist coming projects and investment by political means. Russia’s position will be slightly different.
The tension between Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia and Abkhazia has not been solved. Georgia’s closer relationship with China certainly will ease their antagonism. Further, China still has not recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazi, so that Tbilisi will not worry about Bejing’s compromise with Moscow on sovereign integrity of Georgia. For the United States, I think Trump is not very interested in the Caucasus Region for the time being since it does not lie within the sphere of New Monroe Doctrine at all.
Apart from Russia and EU, we should also consider the role of Turkey. Turkey and Azerbaijan are Turkic states. They also have geopolitical interests in the region but I think Turkey is more focused on Central Asia rather than Caucasus. Ankara will keep an eye on China’s approach but will not protest much for the time being.
The case of Iran is more complicated. In view of the present situation. Iran is very concerned with Caucasus region for energy transport. Tehran has a good relationship with Armenia. As Iran is also a member of Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, I think Tehran will welcome China’s moving closer to the region for economic collaboration and geopolitical stability.
However, we should have foresight. What happens if the Ukraine conflict is settled by some means in near future. For recovery, both economically and geopolitically, Russia will try to come back to the stage of South Caucasus again. The United States will also participate in reconstruction of Ukraine for gaining economic benefits.
One related infrastructure project is the “Trump Route”, that is a corridor through Armenia, connecting Azerbaijan’s mainland to its Nakhchivan exclave, then to Turkey and Europe, aiming for regional transit and reduced Iranian/Russian influence. This will certainly crash with China’s One Belt One Road Initiative. Will Georgia again be subject to geopolitical rivalry? This remains to be observed.
