From a theoretical point of view, the probability cannot be absolutely denied, but looking at the geostrategic context, the possibility of a conventional war between Türkiye and Israel is scarce.

The international conflict and strategic competition on the current chessboard does not give priority to direct confrontation but to indirect confrontation, hybrid warfare is what allows the deployment without major risks of high-level collision and escalation, the military capabilities that are known to cause great mutual destruction, especially between great powers and medium-sized powers such as Türkiye and Israel.

Even in the plot of the announced reform of NATO and even a potential withdrawal of the US from it, it does not cease to consider both Israel and Türkiye its allies, although it seems obvious that its preferences lean towards the former, however, a war between partners is not in the interest of the US.  An open contest would provoke a serious crisis on the western side.

On the other hand, Israel has to attend to several fronts (Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iran mainly), opening another front with the proud Turkish people would be suicide, but there is never a lack of fanatics in the Zionist gang and they see Türkiye as a rising regional power with autonomous ambitions which threatens their vision of Greater Israel. 

That is, Türkiye has the capacity to operate in the Levant, Eastern Mediterranean, Black Sea, Caucasus and Africa, which generates geopolitical suspicion in the Zionist entity as it is projected as a competitor that frustrates its ambition for regional hegemony. Israel always seeks to fragment or weaken its antagonists or those who influence or have a presence in its operational space. For Israel, Türkiye is a non-aligned actor that can or does provide political support to hostile forces.

In this context, the confrontational narrative between the leaderships of Israel and Türkiye in recent times has been in crescendo. An interesting fact is, for example, that the Istanbul Attorney General’s Office asked for life imprisonment for Prime Minister Netanyahu and 34 senior Israeli officials accused of genocide and a series of other crimes revolving around the case of the Zionist aggression against the Sumud Flotilla that was carrying humanitarian aid to Gaza. 

Thus, any clash between Türkiye and Israel would take place in the following specific spaces:

1. Syria, where competition between Ankara and Tel Aviv has become evident. Türkiye seeks to maintain influence in the north and stop the consolidation of autonomous Kurdish entities and Israel seeks to maintain what they euphemistically call security zones, which is why it carries out frequent military operations in Syrian territory. This can lead to an “accidental” confrontation but from my point of view without reaching a high or medium level, that is, it would seek to avoid disproportionate costs and the unpredictable evolution of the conflict.  In the context of the hybrid war, Ankara suspects that the Zionist entity supports Kurdish organizations. Moreover, the political objectives that both states seek to impose on Syria are completely antagonistic.
   
2. Eastern Mediterranean: Both countries have divergent energy and geopolitical interests in that geography. However, Türkiye has not prevented the passage of Azerbaijani oil into Israel, approximately 50% of its consumption.
   
3. The preferred forms of shock are already or would be the following. Use of proxy forces and attack on them, electronic warfare and cyberattacks, diplomatic and economic struggle and above all underground combat through special operations and intelligence which is one of the preferred methods of hybrid wars.

Finally, the key element that deters Israel from embarking on a war with Türkiye is what Iran has just demonstrated. Israel cannot carry out conventional wars without the support of the United States, and the United States has just been defeated in West Asia, which has a powerful psychological effect.

Iran destroyed the belief that the US can attack with impunity and its allies in the region understood that the US is incapable of defending them, this has been made clear above all to the monarchies of the Persian Gulf. In addition, it should be remembered that Türkiye’s military power is important and the development of its war industry as well.

The conflict between Türkiye and Israel will remain in the grey zone, it is real, but it is unfolding in a way that does not provoke an uncontrollable and unwanted overflow.