Pakistan has been always a secret bridge between the United States and China for a long time. I think Trump has asked Pakistan to contact China for help in mediating the war with Iran. China has promised to help and that explains why Trump has fixed the date for his official visit to China.
This also reflects that United States cannot prolong the war with Iran due to different reasons: exhaust of resources, financial burden, pressure from Gulf allies and Japan, unstable old price, middle term election, etc. There are only two nations who can influence Iran. They are Russia and China. Russia’s support focuses on military, technology and intelligence aspects. China, on the other hand, plays two roles.
Firstly, China can get around the sanctions against Iran by different economic means. Further, China has diplomatic influence in other countries, in particular, Gulf states. Beijing is trusted trusted by both Iran and Arabic nations.
There are several interests for China to engage mediation. Firstly, it promotes Beijing as a true peacemaker in action and result in contrast to Trump’s empty promise style. Secondly, ending the war can stabilize the energy supply for China and its One Belt One Road Initiative. Thirdly, this makes Trump and the United States to understand that China is indispensable for stability in Middle East.
Ignoring China’s power and influence is strategically incorrect. China in turn will use this as an asset for bargaining with the United States in the future. Fourthly, many commentators criticized that China has not supported its ally Iran during this war period. This is totally misconceived.
Tehran and Beijing have full consensus that China will not openly support Iran by militarily means. However, this does not prevent China from provide technical intelligence and economic resources covertly. Further, if Iran can defeat the United States without open support form Russia and China, this will boost more political support among Iranians because they believe that the whole nation fights with its own hand. This contrasts Zelensky who has been begging to the West for money and weapons from time to time.
China’s inaction at the initial stage does not mean that Beijing was weak. China knows fully that Trump’s military operations cannot not last long and would fall into troubles as Iran can maintain its strong resistance. China just waited for US’s ask for help. Now the right time has come. I think after the war is over, even Gulf nations will be get more closer to China than before for sake of security and stability.
