In March 2026, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva proposed to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum the formation of a strategic alliance between Petrobras and Pemex for the joint exploration of crude oil deposits in deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, at depths greater than 2,500 meters. Sheinbaum confirmed that the initiative is in the technical and financial study phase, with the planned visit of Petrobras President Magda Chambriard to Mexico in April to detail possible joint ventures and technology transfer.
Although this proposal could be interpreted as an effort to strengthen the energy autonomy of both countries in the midst of the multipolar transition, its analysis requires caution. On the one hand, it potentially responds to the Donroe Doctrine, the Trumpist update of the Monroe Doctrine that Washington uses to restore its hemispheric preeminence, as made explicit in the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy (White House, 2025). On the other hand, the political signals coming from Mexico are not entirely clear regarding the real will and capacity to realize this alliance in the medium term.
This uncertainty is explained by the internal divisions that the Mexican ruling party is going through. While Claudia Sheinbaum and the most nationalist sector of Morena maintain a cautious stance, prioritizing energy sovereignty and the recovery of Pemex as a strategic public company, Marcelo Ebrard and the more cosmopolitan and pragmatic current of the same movement show a vision more open to neoliberal alliances and balances with Washington. The latter current, close to sectors of the industrial bourgeoisie such as Carlos Slim and Salinas Pliego, and with a greater willingness to negotiate within the framework of the USMCA, tends to condition any agreement on guarantees of stability and profitability that do not always coincide with a strictly sovereigntist approach.
A similar element occurs in Brazil. Despite Petrobras’ technical advances in ultra-deep waters, questions persist about possible bureaucratic and environmental blockages that have hindered key projects, such as those of the Equatorial Margin, while there is more room for U.S. multinationals in some tenders. These dynamics raise the suspicion that any strategic rescue effort by Petrobras — regardless of the government in office — faces internal obstacles that deserve to be rigorously weighed.
Behind these dynamics is the imperial geopolitics of the United States that pressures its driving forces in these nations, driven by both the Trump administration and sectors of the deep state. This force operates a transformative and restorative Gatopardian revolution, executed through tools of hybrid warfare. This strategy represents a contemporary version of Americanism and Fordism 2.0 that Antonio Gramsci analyzed in his Prison Notebooks: a transformation imposed “from above” that modernizes and strengthens the structures of domination without allowing a true structural rupture (Gramsci, 1975, Notebook 22). Similarly, Washington seeks to reconfigure the hemisphere through adaptive changes that resolve its organic crisis without altering the essence of unipolar power. This Gatopardian revolution tends to replace the political debate on sovereignty with narratives of “technical security” and transnational criminality, shifting the question of control of strategic resources to the “apolitical” terrain of drug trafficking.
This proposal acquires greater depth when remembering that both Mexico and Brazil have a historical tradition of defending sovereignty over their strategic resources. In Mexico, Lázaro Cárdenas carried out the oil expropriation of 1938, creating Pemex as a pillar of national economic independence. In Brazil, Getúlio Vargas promoted the creation of Petrobras in 1953, conceiving it as a central instrument of sovereignty and autonomous industrial development. Today, however, both countries face the challenge of recovering that sovereign capacity in a much more adverse context.
Faced with this scenario, any effort aimed at the strategic rescue of Petrobras and Pemex deserves to be considered positively, since both state-owned companies represent key instruments to recover autonomous exploration and production capacity. The possible alliance can be explored as a path of energy sovereignty, although not as a definitive or guaranteed solution. The probabilities of initial operating agreements are estimated to be between 60% and 75% by 2026-2027, although they depend on political, financial and environmental variables that are still uncertain. Technical complementarity exists – Petrobras accounts for 82% of its production in the ultra-deep pre-salt (Energy-Pedia, 2026) – but there are also reasonable questions about operational risks and the convenience of diversifying partners into other multipolar players.
This initiative becomes even more relevant when it is linked to broader phenomena of hemispheric redefinition. According to my research, the Ukrainian conflict has functioned as a laboratory for the transfer of FPV drone tactics and technologies such as Starlink to Mexican cartels such as the CJNG, delocalizing the asymmetric chaos and eroding the state monopoly on violence in the region (Pagani, 2026). In parallel, the renewed U.S. offensive for control of the Arctic—with special emphasis on Greenland and the concept of the “ocean-cosmos”—seeks to consolidate a bipolar strategic dominance that projects power from the Arctic to the South Atlantic and the Weddell Sea, countering rival polar routes and ensuring control of critical resources and space surveillance routes (Pagani 2026, March 3). These processes illustrate how Washington’ s all-out war comprehensively impacts the sovereignties of the countries of the region.
The obstacles — geopolitical pressure from the Donroe Doctrine, financial challenges from Pemex (whose debt was reduced to $84.5 billion in 2025; Reuters, 2026) and price volatility – are not insurmountable impediments, but dialectical challenges that confirm the need for greater South-South integration. The most consistent response is through articulation with the BRICS and other multipolar actors such as Russia and China. Such cooperation would significantly strengthen the exploration and extraction capacity of both countries, allowing technological and financial development without relying on U.S. companies. Within the framework of a new multipolar world order, it is strategic to build autonomous poles in the economic, commercial and financial spheres through structures such as the BRICS, capable of reducing vulnerability to unipolar power and consolidating true energy sovereignty in the region.
In the medium term, if this alliance generates tangible results in production, technology and shared profitability, it will be able to radiate to other states with a sovereignty orientation, consolidating a continental pole capable of neutralizing historical fragmentation and counteracting the hybrid war and the Gatopardian revolution promoted by the United States in the hemisphere.
In short, the Mexico-Brazil proposal is not just another energy agreement: it is a strategic pillar in the confrontation between regional sovereignty and the dynamics of the Gatopardian revolution promoted by the American Union through the Donroe Doctrine. In a context where this order resorts to adaptive transformations to preserve its hegemony, Mexico and Brazil position themselves as active subjects of the historical dialectic. Its realization in the coming months will not only strengthen the energy autonomy of two key economies, but will send a clear signal to the hemisphere: South-South sovereign integration is a viable way to defend resources, autonomy, and multipolar stability in the twenty-first century.
References
Energy-Pedia. (2026, 20 de enero). Brazil: Petrobras surpasses 2025 productions targets. https://www.energy-pedia.com/news/brazil/petrobras-surpasses-2025-production-targets-202583
Gramsci, A. (1975). Prison Notebooks (Critical edition of the Istituto Gramsci, edited by V. Gerratana). Ediciones Era. (Especially Notebook 22: Americanism and Fordism, and the notes on passive revolution).
Pagani, A. (2026). The Globalization of Asymmetric Warfare: The CJNG in Ukraine. Lights of the Century. https://lucesdelsiglo.com/2026/03/02/la-globalizacion-de-la-guerra-asimetrica-el-cjng-en-ucrania-opinion/
Pagani, A. (2026, 3 de marzo). Hegemonic restoration and unlimited war in the Arctic-space multipolar competition. Sovereignty. https://sovereignty.com.br/security-defense/hegemonic-restoration-and-unlimited-war-in-the-arctic-space-multipolar-competition/
Qiao, L., & Wang, X. (1999). Unfettered war. Editorial de Literatura y Artes del Ejército Popular de Liberación (People’s Liberation Army).
Reuters. (2026, 4 de febrero). Mexico’s Pemex reports $84.5 billion debt for 2025. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/mexicos-pemex-reports-845-billion-debt-2025-2026-02-04/
Sheinbaum, C. (2026, March 24). Sheinbaum is studying an alliance between Pemex and Petrobras to explore the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico. El País. https://elpais.com/mexico/economia/2026-03-24/sheinbaum-estudia-una-alianza-entre-pemex-y-petrobras-para-explorar-las-aguas-profundas-del-golfo-de-mexico.html
White House. (2025). National Security Strategy of the United States of America. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf
