After more than a decade of strategic collaboration, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) seem to be taking different paths. What for years was a united front in politics, security and economics now shows visible cracks in conflicts such as Yemen and Syria, and in the relationship with Iran, a key player and increasingly isolated by the West.
From ally to competitor
The rift between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi is no coincidence. The coalition in Yemen has fractured: Saudi Arabia remains focused on restoring a central government, while the UAE strengthens local actors in the south, such as the Southern Transitional Council (STC). In Syria and other fronts, differences in strategy and objectives are becoming increasingly apparent.
Competition for regional influence and leadership in the Gulf is intensifying. Saudi Arabia perceives that the UAE is seeking to set its own agenda, while the UAE is seeking to diversify its economic and diplomatic alliances, including with actors such as Israel and China. This clash of interests raises questions about the future of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), whose cohesion depends to a large extent on cooperation between these two countries.
Saudi Arabia and Iran: A Pragmatic Approach
In parallel, Saudi Arabia has begun to move closer to Iran, an isolated country sanctioned by the West. Why would Riyadh make this decision? The explanation lies in the pragmatic management of strategic interests:
- Regional stability: Reduce risks of military confrontations and proxy wars.
- Economic protection: Vision 2030 projects require investment and energy security.
- Strategic autonomy: Less dependence on the United States and Europe to guarantee security.
- Recognition of Iran’s regional power: Ability to influence Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and key sea routes.
- This rapprochement does not imply a complete alliance, but a balance of interests that allows Saudi Arabia to reduce tensions and protect its internal and regional objectives.
United Arab Emirates: a pragmatic and competitive actor
As Saudi Arabia manages its relationship with Iran, the UAE seeks to project autonomy and soft power, strengthening economic and diplomatic ties outside the Saudi orbit. This includes limited cooperation with the West and China, as well as a more independent strategy in regional conflicts.
The result is a triangle of interests in the Gulf that can lead to pragmatic cooperation, open rivalry or tense coexistence, depending on how conflicts evolve and the political decisions of each country’s leaders.
Future scenarios
We can visualize four possible scenarios for 2026–2030:
Future scenarios
- Regional pragmatic cooperation: Arabia, UAE and Iran manage conflicts and create a tense but functional balance.
- Intense rivalry and fragmentation of the Gulf: Strategic differences generate indirect confrontations and division within the GCC.
- Limited Arab-Iranian alliance: Saudi rapprochement with Iran and the UAE pragmatically, creating a regional mini-consensus.
- Military escalation or indirect confrontation: Total rupture between Arabia and UAE, proxy conflicts and maximum tension in the Gulf.
Each scenario depends on internal decisions, mediation by external powers such as China, indirect conflict dynamics and economic priorities of the actors.
Conclusion: a Gulf in recalibration
The relationship between Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iran is redefining the balance of power in the Gulf and the Middle East. Competition for leadership, regional conflict management and the search for strategic autonomy show that the old cooperation schemes are no longer enough.
The future of the region will be shaped by pragmatic balances, tactical alliances, and decisions that prioritize stability over hegemony. Whoever manages to navigate this triangle of interests with a strategic vision will probably define the next decade in the Gulf.
