Would Trump try to leverage an economic deal to help Bolsonaro and partially influence Brazil’s foreign policy?
Ever since the New Republic began (1985), the Brazilian elite has no patriotism. It is narrow minded and thinks only about its particularistic interest and short termed gains.
So, predictably, in August 4, even before the validity of the tariffs, the minister Fernando Haddad already announced that Brazil could put rare earth on the negotiation table. However, the US government is never satisfied with the subservience of Brazilians and always demands more – more environment conservation, more transparency etc.
This relationship has been harder especially in the last years, when Brazilian and US administrations were mismatched: Trump wanted to be reelected and to have an ally in Brazil; his ally was elected but Trump wasn’t. Then it was Biden who sought his reelection and Lula’s election, but succeeded only in electing Lula.
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Now, Trump wants to put a right wing president in Brazil – preferably, Jair Bolsonaro. The Brazilian presidential election is in the next year.
Lula’s administration invested too much energy in saying that arresting Bolsonaro was the same thing as saving democracy. So, if Trump really demands Bolsonaro’s freedom, he will not get it. If he does not get it, he will be glad to tax Brazil’s meet even harder and so please American farmers.
As for Brazilian goods that are vital to American economy, many of them were exempted from the tariffs, such as oranges from which are fabricated and bottled Americans’ beloved juice. So, Brazilian elite will be mad at Lula and will be even less prone to support his candidacy.
Therefore, Trump will not release Bolsonaro, but he is very likely to get what he wants from Brazil in 2026: the election of a right wing candidate.
Other facts that suggest that the US will be intransigent are: they appointed Marco Rubio to negotiate the tariffs with Brazil; María Corina Machado just won a Nobel (and was indicated by Rubio) which smells like preannounce of war against Venezuela; Trump gave a lot of money to his ally Milei, as if it were not enough to fund Ukraine and Israel.
To Latin American Trumpists, Trump gives whatever it takes, and Bolsonaro is one of them. It seems that Latin America is the new Middle East in American policy.
